CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2016-04-06T14:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2016-04-06T14:00ZCME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-04-09T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) Please enter the full notification: ## Summary: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2016-04-06T16:24Z. Estimated speed: ~464 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): 14/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes). Activity ID: 2016-04-06T16:24:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Mars around 2016-04-12T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a slight chance of glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2016-04-09T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2016-04-06T16:24:00-CME-001): http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160406_233600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gifLead Time: 39.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Karin Muglach (GSFC) on 2016-04-08T02:57Z
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